Heterogeneous SARS-CoV-2 kinetics due to variable timing and intensity of immune responses.

The viral kinetics of documented SARS-CoV-2 infections exhibit a high degree of inter-individual variability. We identified six distinct viral shedding patterns, which differed according to peak viral load, duration, expansion rate and clearance rate, by clustering data from 768 infections in the National Basketball Association cohort. Omicron variant infections in previously vaccinated individuals generally led to lower cumulative shedding levels of SARS-CoV-2 than other scenarios. We then developed a mechanistic mathematical model that recapitulated 1510 observed viral trajectories, including viral rebound and cases of reinfection. Lower peak viral loads were explained by a more rapid and sustained transition of susceptible cells to a refractory state during infection, as well as an earlier and more potent late, cytolytic immune response. Our results suggest that viral elimination occurs more rapidly during omicron infection, following vaccination, and following re-infection due to enhanced innate and acquired immune responses. Because viral load has been linked with COVID-19 severity and transmission risk, our model provides a framework for understanding the wide range of observed SARS-CoV-2 infection outcomes.

Two-way pharmacodynamic modeling of drug combinations and its application to pairs of repurposed Ebola and SARS-CoV-2 agents.

Existing pharmacodynamic (PD) mathematical models for drug combinations discriminate antagonistic, additive, multiplicative, and synergistic effects, but fail to consider how concentration-dependent drug interaction effects may vary across an entire dose-response matrix. We developed a two-way pharmacodynamic (TWPD) model to capture the PD of two-drug combinations. TWPD captures interactions between upstream and downstream drugs that act on different stages of viral replication, by quantifying upstream drug efficacy and concentration-dependent effects on downstream drug pharmacodynamic parameters. We applied TWPD to previously published in vitro drug matrixes for repurposed potential anti-Ebola and anti-SARS-CoV-2 drug pairs. Depending on the drug pairing, the model recapitulated combined efficacies as or more accurately than existing models and can be used to infer efficacy at untested drug concentrations. TWPD fits the data slightly better in one direction for all drug pairs, meaning that we can tentatively infer the upstream drug. Based on its high accuracy, TWPD could be used in concert with PK models to estimate the therapeutic effects of drug pairs in vivo.

A unifying model to explain high nirmatrelvir therapeutic efficacy against SARS-CoV-2, despite low post-exposure prophylaxis efficacy and frequent viral rebound.

In a pivotal trial (EPIC-HR), a 5-day course of oral ritonavir-boosted nirmatrelvir, given early during symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection (within three days of symptoms onset), decreased hospitalization and death by 89.1% and nasal viral load by 0.87 log relative to placebo in high-risk individuals. Yet, nirmatrelvir/ritonavir failed as post-exposure prophylaxis in a trial, and frequent viral rebound has been observed in subsequent cohorts. We developed a mathematical model capturing viral-immune dynamics and nirmatrelvir pharmacokinetics that recapitulated viral loads from this and another clinical trial (PLATCOV). Our results suggest that nirmatrelvir's in vivo potency is significantly lower than in vitro assays predict. According to our model, a maximally potent agent would reduce the viral load by approximately 3.5 logs relative to placebo at 5 days. The model identifies that earlier initiation and shorter treatment duration are key predictors of post-treatment rebound. Extension of treatment to 10 days for Omicron variant infection in vaccinated individuals, rather than increasing dose or dosing frequency, is predicted to lower the incidence of viral rebound significantly.

Mild HIV-specific selective forces overlaying natural CD4+ T cell dynamics explain the clonality and decay dynamics of HIV reservoir cells.

The latent reservoir of HIV persists for decades in people living with HIV (PWH) on antiretroviral therapy (ART). To determine if persistence arises from the natural dynamics of memory CD4+ T cells harboring HIV, we compared the clonal dynamics of HIV proviruses to that of memory CD4+ T cell receptors (TCRß) from the same PWH and from HIV-seronegative people. We show that clonal dominance of HIV proviruses and antigen-specific CD4+ T cells are similar but that the field's understanding of the persistence of the less clonally dominant reservoir is significantly limited by undersampling. We demonstrate that increasing reservoir clonality over time and differential decay of intact and defective proviruses cannot be explained by mCD4+ T cell kinetics alone. Finally, we develop a stochastic model of TCRß and proviruses that recapitulates experimental observations and suggests that HIV-specific negative selection mediates approximately 6% of intact and 2% of defective proviral clearance. Thus, HIV persistence is mostly, but not entirely, driven by natural mCD4+ T cell kinetics.

homeRNA self-blood collection enables high-frequency temporal profiling of pre-symptomatic host immune kinetics to respiratory viral infection: a prospective cohort study.

Background: Early host immunity to acute respiratory infections (ARIs) is heterogenous, dynamic, and critical to an individual's infection outcome. Due to limitations in sampling frequency/timepoints, kinetics of early immune dynamics in natural human infections remain poorly understood. In this nationwide prospective cohort study, we leveraged a self-blood collection tool (homeRNA) to profile detailed kinetics of the pre-symptomatic to convalescence host immunity to contemporaneous respiratory pathogens. Methods: We enrolled non-symptomatic adults with recent exposure to ARIs who subsequently tested negative (exposed-uninfected) or positive for respiratory pathogens. Participants self-collected blood and nasal swabs daily for seven consecutive days followed by weekly blood collection for up to seven additional weeks. Symptom burden was assessed during each collection. Nasal swabs were tested for SARS-CoV-2 and common respiratory pathogens. 92 longitudinal blood samples spanning the pre-shedding to post-acute phase of eight SARS-CoV-2-infected participants and 40 interval-matched samples from four exposed-uninfected participants were subjected to high-frequency longitudinal profiling of 773 host immune genes. Findings: Between June 2021 - April 2022, 68 participants across 26 U.S. states completed the study and self-collected a total of 691 and 466 longitudinal blood and nasal swab samples along with 688 symptom surveys. SARS-CoV-2 was detected in 17 out of 22 individuals with study-confirmed respiratory infection. With rapid dissemination of home self-collection kits, two and four COVID-19+ participants started collection prior to viral shedding and symptom onset, respectively, enabling us to profile detailed expression kinetics of the earliest blood transcriptional response to contemporaneous variants of concern. In pre-shedding samples, we observed transient but robust expression of T-cell response signatures, transcription factor complexes, prostaglandin biosynthesis genes, pyrogenic cytokines, and cytotoxic granule genes. This is followed by a rapid induction of many interferon-stimulated genes (ISGs), concurrent to onset of viral shedding and increase in nasal viral load. Finally, we observed increased expression of host defense peptides (HDPs) in exposed-uninfected individuals over the 4-week observational window. Interpretation: We demonstrated that unsupervised self-collection and stabilization of capillary blood can be applied to natural infection studies to characterize detailed early host immune kinetics at a temporal resolution comparable to that of human challenge studies. The remote (decentralized) study framework enables conduct of large-scale population-wide longitudinal mechanistic studies. Expression of cytotoxic/T-cell signatures in pre-shedding samples preceding expansion of innate ISGs suggests a potential role for T-cell mediated pathogen control during early infection. Elevated expression of HDPs in exposed-uninfected individuals warrants further validation studies to assess their potential role in protective immunity during pathogen exposure. Funding: This study was funded by R35GM128648 to ABT for in-lab developments of homeRNA, Packard Fellowship from the David and Lucile Packard Foundation to ABT, and R01AI153087 to AW.

Heterogeneous SARS-CoV-2 kinetics due to variable timing and intensity of immune responses.

The viral kinetics of documented SARS-CoV-2 infections exhibit a high degree of inter-individual variability. We identified six distinct viral shedding patterns, which differed according to peak viral load, duration, expansion rate and clearance rate, by clustering data from 768 infections in the National Basketball Association cohort. Omicron variant infections in previously vaccinated individuals generally led to lower cumulative shedding levels of SARS-CoV-2 than other scenarios. We then developed a mechanistic mathematical model that recapitulated 1510 observed viral trajectories, including viral rebound and cases of reinfection. Lower peak viral loads were explained by a more rapid and sustained transition of susceptible cells to a refractory state during infection, as well as an earlier and more potent late, cytolytic immune response. Our results suggest that viral elimination occurs more rapidly during omicron infection, following vaccination, and following re-infection due to enhanced innate and acquired immune responses. Because viral load has been linked with COVID-19 severity and transmission risk, our model provides a framework for understanding the wide range of observed SARS-CoV-2 infection outcomes.

High monoclonal neutralization titers reduced breakthrough HIV-1 viral loads in the Antibody Mediated Prevention trials.

The Antibody Mediated Prevention (AMP) trials (NCT02716675 and NCT02568215) demonstrated that passive administration of the broadly neutralizing monoclonal antibody VRC01 could prevent some HIV-1 acquisition events. Here, we use mathematical modeling in a post hoc analysis to demonstrate that VRC01 influenced viral loads in AMP participants who acquired HIV. Instantaneous inhibitory potential (IIP), which integrates VRC01 serum concentration and VRC01 sensitivity of acquired viruses in terms of both IC50 and IC80, follows a dose-response relationship with first positive viral load (p = 0.03), which is particularly strong above a threshold of IIP = 1.6 (r = -0.6, p = 2e-4). Mathematical modeling reveals that VRC01 activity predicted from in vitro IC80s and serum VRC01 concentrations overestimates in vivo neutralization by 600-fold (95% CI: 300-1200). The trained model projects that even if future therapeutic HIV trials of combination monoclonal antibodies do not always prevent acquisition, reductions in viremia and reservoir size could be expected.

Estimating the contribution of CD4 T cell subset proliferation and differentiation to HIV persistence.

Persistence of HIV in people living with HIV (PWH) on suppressive antiretroviral therapy (ART) has been linked to physiological mechanisms of CD4+ T cells. Here, in the same 37 male PWH on ART we measure longitudinal kinetics of HIV DNA and cell turnover rates in five CD4 cell subsets: naïve (TN), stem-cell- (TSCM), central- (TCM), transitional- (TTM), and effector-memory (TEM). HIV decreases in TTM and TEM but not in less-differentiated subsets. Cell turnover is ~10 times faster than HIV clearance in memory subsets, implying that cellular proliferation consistently creates HIV DNA. The optimal mathematical model for these integrated data sets posits HIV DNA also passages between CD4 cell subsets via cellular differentiation. Estimates are heterogeneous, but in an average participant's year ~10 (in TN and TSCM) and ~104 (in TCM, TTM, TEM) proviruses are generated by proliferation while ~103 proviruses passage via cell differentiation (per million CD4). In simulations, therapies blocking proliferation and/or enhancing differentiation could reduce HIV DNA by 1-2 logs over 3 years. In summary, HIV exploits cellular proliferation and differentiation to persist during ART but clears faster in more proliferative/differentiated CD4 cell subsets and the same physiological mechanisms sustaining HIV might be temporarily modified to reduce it.

The STOP COVID 2 Study: Fluvoxamine vs Placebo for Outpatients With Symptomatic COVID-19, a Fully Remote Randomized Controlled Trial.

Background: Prior randomized clinical trials have reported benefit of fluvoxamine ≥200 mg/d vs placebo for patients infected with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Methods: This randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled, fully remote multisite clinical trial evaluated whether fluvoxamine prevents clinical deterioration in higher-risk outpatients with acute coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Between December 2020 and May 2021, nonhospitalized US and Canadian participants with confirmed symptomatic infection received fluvoxamine (50 mg on day 1, 100 mg twice daily thereafter) or placebo for 15 days. The primary modified intent-to-treat (mITT) population included participants who started the intervention within 7 days of symptom onset with a baseline oxygen saturation ≥92%. The primary outcome was clinical deterioration within 15 days of randomization, defined as having both (1) shortness of breath (severity ≥4 on a 0-10 scale or requiring hospitalization) and (2) oxygen saturation <92% on room air or need for supplemental oxygen. Results: A total of 547 participants were randomized and met mITT criteria (n = 272 fluvoxamine, n = 275 placebo). The Data Safety Monitoring Board recommended stopping early for futility related to lower-than-predicted event rates and declining accrual concurrent with vaccine availability in the United States and Canada. Clinical deterioration occurred in 13 (4.8%) participants in the fluvoxamine group and 15 (5.5%) participants in the placebo group (absolute difference at day 15, 0.68%; 95% CI, -3.0% to 4.4%; log-rank P = .91). Conclusions: This trial did not find fluvoxamine efficacious in preventing clinical deterioration in unvaccinated outpatients with symptomatic COVID-19. It was stopped early and underpowered due to low primary outcome rates. Clinical Trials Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT04668950.

Impact of misclassified defective proviruses on HIV reservoir measurements.

Most proviruses persisting in people living with HIV (PWH) on antiretroviral therapy (ART) are defective. However, rarer intact proviruses almost always reinitiate viral rebound if ART stops. Therefore, assessing therapies to prevent viral rebound hinges on specifically quantifying intact proviruses. We evaluated the same samples from 10 male PWH on ART using the two-probe intact proviral DNA assay (IPDA) and near full length (nfl) Q4PCR. Both assays admitted similar ratios of intact to total HIV DNA, but IPDA found ~40-fold more intact proviruses. Neither assay suggested defective proviruses decay over 10 years. However, the mean intact half-lives were different: 108 months for IPDA and 65 months for Q4PCR. To reconcile this difference, we modeled additional longitudinal IPDA data and showed that decelerating intact decay could arise from very long-lived intact proviruses and/or misclassified defective proviruses: slowly decaying defective proviruses that are intact in IPDA probe locations (estimated up to 5%, in agreement with sequence library based predictions). The model also demonstrates how misclassification can lead to underestimated efficacy of therapies that exclusively reduce intact proviruses. We conclude that sensitive multi-probe assays combined with specific nfl-verified assays would be optimal to document absolute and changing levels of intact HIV proviruses.

Successful Treatment of Persistent Symptomatic Coronavirus Disease 19 Infection With Extended-Duration Nirmatrelvir-Ritonavir Among Outpatients With Hematologic Cancer.

Persistent symptomatic coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a distinct clinical entity among patients with hematologic cancer and/or profound immunosuppression. The optimal medical management is unknown. We describe 2 patients who had symptomatic COVID-19 for almost 6 months and were successfully treated in the ambulatory setting with extended courses of nirmatrelvir-ritonavir.

Recurrent infection transiently expands human tissue T cells while maintaining long-term homeostasis.

Chronic viral infections are known to lead to T cell exhaustion or dysfunction. However, it remains unclear if antigen exposure episodes from periodic viral reactivation, such as herpes simplex virus type-2 (HSV-2) recrudescence, are sufficient to induce T cell dysfunction, particularly in the context of a tissue-specific localized, rather than a systemic, infection. We designed and implemented a stringent clinical surveillance protocol to longitudinally track both viral shedding and in situ tissue immune responses in a cohort of HSV+ volunteers that agreed to avoid using anti-viral therapy for the course of this study. Comparing lesion to control skin biopsies, we found that tissue T cells expanded immediately after reactivation, and then returned numerically and phenotypically to steady state. T cell responses appeared to be driven at least in part by migration of circulating T cells to the infected tissue. Our data indicate that tissue T cells are stably maintained in response to HSV reactivation, resembling a series of acute recall responses.

Consistent Effects of Early Remdesivir on Symptoms and Disease Progression Across At-Risk Outpatient Subgroups: Treatment Effect Heterogeneity in PINETREE Study.

INTRODUCTION: In the PINETREE study, early remdesivir treatment reduced risk of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)-related hospitalizations or all-cause death versus placebo by 87% by day 28 in high-risk, non-hospitalized patients. Here we report results of assessment of heterogeneity of treatment effect (HTE) of early outpatient remdesivir, focusing on time from symptom onset and number of baseline risk factors (RFs). METHODS: PINETREE was a double-blind, placebo-controlled trial of non-hospitalized patients with COVID-19 who were randomized within 7 days of symptom onset and had ≥ 1 RF for disease progression (age ≥ 60 years, obesity [body mass index ≥ 30], or certain coexisting medical conditions). Patients received remdesivir intravenously (200 mg on day 1 and 100 mg on days 2 and 3) or placebo. RESULTS: In this subgroup analysis, HTE of remdesivir by time from symptom onset at treatment initiation and number of baseline RFs was not detected. Treatment with remdesivir reduced COVID-19-related hospitalizations independent of stratification by time from symptom onset to randomization. Of patients enrolled ≤ 5 days from symptom onset, 1/201 (0.5%) receiving remdesivir and 9/194 (4.6%) receiving placebo were hospitalized (hazard ratio [HR] 0.10; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.01-0.82). Of those enrolled at > 5 days from symptom onset, 1/78 (1.3%) receiving remdesivir and 6/89 (6.7%) receiving placebo were hospitalized (HR 0.19; 95% CI 0.02-1.61). Remdesivir was also effective in reducing COVID-19-related hospitalizations when stratified by number of baseline RFs for severe disease. Of patients with ≤ 2 RFs, 0/159 (0.0%) receiving remdesivir and 4/164 (2.4%) receiving placebo were hospitalized; of those with ≥ 3 RFs, 2/120 (1.7%) receiving remdesivir and 11/119 (9.2%) receiving placebo were hospitalized (HR 0.16; 95% CI 0.04-0.73). CONCLUSIONS: In the outpatient setting, benefit of remdesivir initiated within 7 days of symptoms appeared to be consistent across patients with RFs. Therefore, it may be reasonable to broadly treat patients with remdesivir regardless of comorbidities. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov number NCT04501952.

Longitudinal home self-collection of capillary blood using homeRNA correlates interferon and innate viral defense pathways with SARS-CoV-2 viral clearance.

Blood transcriptional profiling is a powerful tool to evaluate immune responses to infection; however, blood collection via traditional phlebotomy remains a barrier to precise characterization of the immune response in dynamic infections (e.g., respiratory viruses). Here we present an at-home self-collection methodology, homeRNA, to study the host transcriptional response during acute SARS-CoV-2 infections. This method uniquely enables high frequency measurement of the host immune kinetics in non-hospitalized adults during the acute and most dynamic stage of their infection. COVID-19+ and healthy participants self-collected blood every other day for two weeks with daily nasal swabs and symptom surveys to track viral load kinetics and symptom burden, respectively. While healthy uninfected participants showed remarkably stable immune kinetics with no significant dynamic genes, COVID-19+ participants, on the contrary, depicted a robust response with over 418 dynamic genes associated with interferon and innate viral defense pathways. When stratified by vaccination status, we detected distinct response signatures between unvaccinated and breakthrough (vaccinated) infection subgroups; unvaccinated individuals portrayed a response repertoire characterized by higher innate antiviral responses, interferon signaling, and cytotoxic lymphocyte responses while breakthrough infections portrayed lower levels of interferon signaling and enhanced early cell-mediated response. Leveraging cross-platform longitudinal sampling (nasal swabs and blood), we observed that IFI27, a key viral response gene, tracked closely with SARS-CoV-2 viral clearance in individual participants. Taken together, these results demonstrate that at-home sampling can capture key host antiviral responses and facilitate frequent longitudinal sampling to detect transient host immune kinetics during dynamic immune states.

Memory T cells possess an innate-like function in local protection from mucosal infection.

Mucosal infections pose a significant global health burden. Antigen-specific tissue-resident T cells are critical to maintaining barrier immunity. Previous studies in the context of systemic infection suggest that memory CD8+ T cells may also provide innate-like protection against antigenically unrelated pathogens independent of T cell receptor engagement. Whether bystander T cell activation is also an important defense mechanism in the mucosa is poorly understood. Here, we investigated whether innate-like memory CD8+ T cells could protect against a model mucosal virus infection, herpes simplex virus 2 (HSV-2). We found that immunization with an irrelevant antigen delayed disease progression from lethal HSV-2 challenge, suggesting that memory CD8+ T cells may mediate protection despite the lack of antigen specificity. Upon HSV-2 infection, we observed an early infiltration, rather than substantial local proliferation, of antigen-nonspecific CD8+ T cells, which became bystander-activated only within the infected mucosal tissue. Critically, we show that bystander-activated CD8+ T cells are sufficient to reduce early viral burden after HSV-2 infection. Finally, local cytokine cues within the tissue microenvironment after infection were sufficient for bystander activation of mucosal tissue memory CD8+ T cells from mice and humans. Altogether, our findings suggest that local bystander activation of CD8+ memory T cells contributes a fast and effective innate-like response to infection in mucosal tissue.

Stochastic fate decisions of HSCs after transplantation: early contribution, symmetric expansion, and pool formation.

Hematopoietic stem cells (HSCs) are assumed to be rare, infrequently dividing, long-lived cells not involved in immediate recovery after transplantation. Here, we performed unprecedented high-density clonal tracking in nonhuman primates and found long-term persisting HSC clones to actively contribute during early neutrophil recovery, and to be the main source of blood production as early as 50 days after transplantation. Most surprisingly, we observed a rapid decline in the number of unique HSC clones, while persisting HSCs expanded, undergoing symmetric divisions to create identical siblings and formed clonal pools ex vivo as well as in vivo. In contrast to the currently assumed model of hematopoietic reconstitution, we provide evidence for contribution of HSCs in short-term recovery as well as symmetric expansion of individual clones into pools. These findings provide novel insights into HSC biology, informing the design of HSC transplantation and gene therapy studies.

Substantial uneven proliferation of CD4+ T cells during recovery from acute HIV infection is sufficient to explain the observed expanded clones in the HIV reservoir.

The HIV reservoir is a population of 1-10 million anatomically dispersed, latently infected memory CD4+ T cells in which HIV DNA is quiescently integrated into human chromosomal DNA. When antiretroviral therapy (ART) is stopped and HIV replication initiates in one of these cells, systemic viral spread resumes, rekindling progression to AIDS. Therefore, HIV latency prevents cure. The detection of many populations of identical HIV sequences at unique integration sites implicates CD4+ T cell proliferation as the critical driver of reservoir sustainment after a prolonged period of effective ART. Initial reservoir formation occurs during the first week of primary infection usually before ART is started. While empirical data indicates that both de novo infection and cellular proliferation generate latently infected cells during early untreated infection, it is not known which of these mechanisms is predominant. We developed a mathematical model that recapitulates the profound depletion and brisk recovery of CD4+ T cells, reservoir creation, and viral load trajectory during primary HIV infection. We extended the model to stochastically simulate individual HIV reservoir clones. This model predicts the first detection of HIV infected clones approximately 5 weeks after infection as has recently been shown in vivo and suggests that substantial, uneven proliferation among clones during the recovery from CD4+ lymphopenia is the most plausible explanation for the observed clonal reservoir distribution during the first year of infection.